In its latest market forecast, the International Energy Agency predicts modern bioenergy will represent the biggest growth in renewable energy sources between 2018 and 2023, with bioenergy in the power sector alone increasing by 37 gigawatts (GW) during that five year period, reaching 158 GW.
The IEA released its Renewables 2018 market analysis and forecast report on Oct. 8, showing that renewables will continue to expand over the next five years, accounting for 40 percent of global energy consumption growth. The use of renewables is expected to increase most rapidly in the electricity sector, and will account for almost one-third of total world electricity generation in 2023. The use of renewables, however, is expected to expand far more slowly in the transportation and heat sectors due to weaker policy support and other barriers to deployment.
According to the IEA, bioenergy will remain the largest source of renewable energy over the next five years due to its widespread use in heat and transportation, sectors in which other renewables currently play a much smaller role.
“Modern bioenergy is the overlooked giant of the renewable energy field,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA. “Its share in the world’s total renewables consumption is about 50 percent today, in other words as much as hydro, wind, solar and all other renewables combined.
We expect modern bioenergy will continue to lead the field, and has huge prospects for further growth. But the right policies and rigorous sustainability regulations will be essential to meet its full potential.”
Information released by the IEA shows that modern bioenergy, excluding the traditional use of biomass, was responsible for half of all renewable energy consumed last year, providing four times the contribution of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind combined. The IEA said most modern bioenergy is used in final energy consumption to deliver heat in buildings and for industry.
The IEA report shows bioenergy will be the largest source of growth in renewable consumption over the next five years. Bioenergy in the form of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels will account for 30 percent of the growth in renewable consumption from 2008 through 2023. The IEA said this is a result of the considerable use of bioenergy in heat and transport, which account for 80 percent of final energy consumption.
Bioenergy power capacity is expected to increase by 37 GW over the next five years, reaching 158 GW in 2023. The IEA said the forecast has been revised up from last year to reflect a more optimistic outlook for China, which is expected to account for 37 percent of global bioenergy. The forecast for bioenergy in the European Union has been lowered, although the IEA said the U.K. and Netherlands remain major markets. While the report states that bioenergy is not expanding rapidly into many new markets, it does not that Mexico and Turkey are showing signs of growing .
The consumption of bioenergy by the industrial sector is expected to grow 13 percent over the next five years. According to the IEA, there is currently significant untapped potential to increase bioenergy use in the cement, sugar and ethanol industries. If key cement-producing countries were to introduce robust frameworks for waste management, the IEA predicts the use of bioenergy in the industrial sector could be further increased by an additional 13 percent.
Biofuel production over the five-year period is expected to increase 15 percent, reaching 165 billion liters (43.59 billion gallons) by 2023. By 2023, biofuels are expected to account for nearly 90 percent of total renewables in the transportation sector. Fuel ethanol is expected to make up two-thirds of biofuel production growth, with biodiesel and hydrotreated vegetable oil making up the remainder.
Asian countries account for the majority of the growth in biofuel output over the next five years, with the IEA predicting China, India and member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations representing half of the global expansion in biofuel production. Latin America will be responsible for an additional 45 percent of that growth, particularly Brazil.
Under favorable market and policy conditions, the IEA said the growth in biofuels could be even more significant over the next five years, reaching nearly 206 billion liters of production.
